10.08-10.11 饲料级磷酸氢钙产品行情周报（DCP MCP MDCP)
原材料端：目前云铜新厂出酸时间仍未官方消息；本周云南地区云铜硫酸价格上调30元每吨，，，云锡上调30元/吨，，，，驰宏锌锗上调60元/吨，，，，将促使磷酸氢钙成本上涨约42元/吨。。本周四川攀枝花地区酸价也受云南地区酸价上涨带动，，酸价上调30元/吨。。
需求方面： 经销商：也是预期9月份价格会下跌，，，，因此前期都不敢囤货，，多以背靠背或者快进快出的方式采购；终端客户也是以少量多采的形式采购，，，，但是云铜目前仍未出酸且具体出酸日期无官方可靠消息，，，，终端客户库存也消化得差不多有补库需求，，，，因此近期出现集中性、、、小量的采购需求。。。。
供应及开工率方面： 本周磷酸氢钙开工率相比节前有提升，，，，但云南地区仍有一家主流大厂仍然处于停产状态；因后期云铜新厂出酸后酸价利空，，因此目前在产企业根据当前原材料成本及自身产能保持控量签单，，，且保持降低负荷生产，，，因此货源仍然紧缺，，需排单生产及下游排队提货。。另外氢钙工厂也是预期9月份价格会下塌，，所以前期都减产或者停产自主降低库存；结果碰上现在集中性的需求，，，，工厂库存又不够应付，，，，加上硫酸价格上调，，因此也跟着上调价格。。。
后市预测：云铜新厂投产迟迟未达预期，，，且下月另一主流酸企有检修计划，，，，检修时间约30天，，，，因此短期内云南地区硫酸仍有上调预期；磷酸氢钙工厂排单充足，，，交货仍然紧张，，，，且短时间内难以缓解，，，，价格依然稳中向上；目前处于下游旺季，，，需求方面有一定利好支撑。。。
Raw materials:
There is still no official news about the make out products time of Yunnan Copper’s new plant at present, and due to the low inventories or sulfuric acid, the price of sulfuric acid in Yunnan including Yunnan Copper, Yunnan Tin Industry, and Yunnan Chihong Zinc Germanium has been increased by 30 to 60 yuan per ton, which will drive up the cost of dicalcium phosphate products by about 42 yuan per ton. And the acid price in Sichuan is also increased by 30 yuan per ton driven up by the rising acid price in Yunnan.
On the demand side: It is also expected that the sulfuric acid prices will fall in September, so the distributor mostly purchase in a back-to-back or fast-in fast-out manner. And the feed mills also purchase in a form of small quantities and frequent replenishment. However, Yunnan Copper has not yet made out the acid and there is no reliable official news on the specific date. The feed mills have to replenish stocks, so there has been a concentrated and small amount of procurement demand recently.
Supply and operating rate:
The operating rate of dicalcium phosphate has been increased compared to the national holiday, but there is still a mainstream large factory in Yunnan is still in a state of shutdown. Due to the negative impact of acid price after the new Yunnan copper plant starts producing acid in the later stage, the factories under producing are keeping a controlled amount of orders based on current raw material costs and their own production capacity, and maintaining reduced production. Therefore, the supply is still tight, it takes time for downstream customers’ new orders to scheduling and producing. In addition, factories also expect prices to fall in September, so they have reduced or stopped production to reduce their inventories in the early stage. As a result, they are now facing a concentrated demand with insufficient factory inventories, coupled with the increase in sulfuric acid prices, so they have also raised their prices accordingly.
Forecast: There is still no official news and the specific date of Yunnan Copper’s new plant’s sulfuric acid, and another major acid factory has a maintenance plan next month with a maintenance time of about 30 days. Therefore, in the short term, there’s increasing expectation of sulfuric acid price in Yunnan. The pending orders’ schedules for dicalcium phosphate factories is sufficient and delivery is still tight, which is difficult to ease in a short time, and the price of phosphate products remains stable with an upward trend. Currently, it is in the peak season, which is positive support for the demand.
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